An early cash out on breakaway pick Brambilla at 500/1 made yesterday's mountainous stage one of the most profitable of the race so far! Today sees the riders tackle an undulating day through rolling terrain, a perfect opportunity for those riders yet to stamp their name on the Tour so far...
At 220km, this is the longest stage of the 2017 Tour de France and is in many ways more akin to a one day classic route rather than a grand tour stage. Climbing will begin almost from the gun, the Cat 3 Col Lebraut more than likely seeing the formation of the early escape.
With such a long run in to the line, and many teams shattered from the past few stages through the Alps, any escape that goes here could quite easily snap the elastic. If a strong group of 15+ riders gain a gap, do not expect them to be seen again before the stage finish...
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If the battle for the early move proves too fierce, another opportunity should present itself on the following climb, only 15km after the first. Following the duo of climbs, the riders will then be treated to a long descent into the town of Sisteron before they make their way across rolling roads to the intermediate sprint in Banon.
This should prove to be of little interest to the sprinter's teams behind, the majority of them rolling through in an attempt to conserve energy for the stage finale.
With 50km of the stage left to race, the riders will begin the final climb, a Cat 3 ascent that stretches for no more than 5.8km at 4.1%. Nothing too testing but it could potentially throw the front group into disarray and spark a few attacks if no group assumes control of the bunch.
It's then 45km to the stage finish in Salon de Provence, all on flat or downhill roads. Any breakaway or late attack still riding ahead of the bunch will find it difficult to survive here, especially if the peloton get coordinate behind.
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Winds coming from the SW are forecast to reach speeds of 12mph and should meet riders with a block headwind into the stage finish, more than likely spelling the end to any late escapes. Only the pure classics specialists will have what it takes to survive in such conditions, this is the weather that they thrive on.
The final 5km of the stage have the potential to cause some major upsets to the race, both for the sprinters and the overall GC contenders. A tricky run in looks certain to cause a few crashes, let's hope that no riders meet the end of their Tour de France in Salon de Provence...
A chicane just before the flamme rouge will be tough to navigate for many teams and will make having a solid leadout train crucial. Once under the red kite, two 90 degree left handers are all that stand in the way of the riders and the finish line. Unfortunately, the final bend comes with just 300m to go and many riders may have to launch their sprints without a view of their end goal.
Such a sprint often causes riders to burn out early, with no sight of the finish line, they struggle to gauge their effort and blow up as a result. This is a finish for a technically savvy, but also endurance sprinter; step forward Alexander Kristoff.
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Katusha are yet to do anything of note in this Tour and will be ruing the missed opportunities, especially with their star sprinter Kristoff. Despite struggling few the past couple of Alpine stages, the Norwegian will relish today's route.
He's a classics man through and through, the distance of today's stage suiting him and his incredibly large engine. The sprint finish also falls within his ballpark, an early wind up possibly proving the winning move today. With Tony Martin at the helm of his leadout train, Kristoff shouldn't struggle for positioning; he can be found at 16/1 with Bet365 for the stage win.
Another Norwegian that heads the list of favourites for the sprint finish is Edvald Boasson Hagen. A string of podium results will no doubt motivate him to ride for the illusive stage win, today being his final chance to do so. Dimension Data are one of the few teams that will assume the pace making role today, devoid of any stage wins so far, the pressure is certainly now on.
Boasson Hagen has consistently proven to be the fastest of the second tier sprinters, with Kittel now absent, has the door been opened to a Norwegian winner? He can be found at 7/1 with Betfred for the stage win and, judging by his form, is certainly worth an E/W punt.
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Michael Matthews and John Degenkolb will be looking to upset the Norwegian party in Salon de Provence. Matthews will be hunting a third win, and Degenkolb looking to break his duck at the 2017 Tour. The Aussie is a quick sprinter but Degenkolb is arguably the faster rider, especially on an explosive finish like today's.
Trek will be working all day for their German sprinter and will be eager to reel in each and every attack. Degenkolb can be found at 12/1 with Bet365 for the stage win and is worth an E/W bet. Matthews is another strong contender for a podium tomorrow and will be hunting green jersey points, he can be found at 7/1 with SkyBet for the win.
Looking to throw the sprint win under question today will be the opportunists of the peloton, those riders eager to take victory after a long day in the breakaway. The length of today's stage will suit the strong rouleurs with a classics edge, the Greg Van Avermaet's of the peloton...
With little incentive for Sunweb to ride tomorrow, Matthews essentially securing the green jersey win yesterday, and Quickstep devoid of Marcel Kittel, the peloton may struggle to surmount a chase to the breakaway out front.
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The mantle will befall Trek, Katusha and Dimension Data to peg back the escape, but with so much at stake at the finish line, I expect that they'll play bluffing games all the way to the line; playing right into the hands of the breakaway.
Some strong one day racers that are yet to score a result in the Tour so far include, Greg Van Avermaet (16/1 Bet365), Oliver Naesen (50/1 SkyBet), Marcus Burghadt (125/1 Paddy Power) and Jay McCarthy (100/1 Paddy Power).
The Verdict
With Kittel gone, and Matthews satisfied with his haul of green jersey points, it's up to the other sprinting teams to chase the break tomorrow. Katusha will be eager to snatch a result, attempting to place Kristoff in the best position come the finale.
I'll be on the big Norwegian for the stage win, 16/1 E/W. Other sprinters to fill out the podium spots will be Degenkolb, 12/1 E/W, and Matthews, 7/1 E/W.
The two breakaway picks both come from the same team, Bora Hansgrohe. After losing Sagan early in the Tour, they have been totally absent from the race; they need to represent the brand and snatch some TV time, expect to see at least one of them make the escape. I'll be on Burghadt at 125/1 and McCarthy at 100/1, both for the outright win.
After the success of Brambilla's cash out yesterday, a reasonable stake on two surefire breakaway contenders today could potentially bring home even more profit. I'll be looking for Maxime Bouet (400/1 UniBet) and Frederik Backaert (300/1) to make the breakaway before cashing out for a healthy profit...
Words By: Inside The Peloton
https://www.insidethepelotonblog.org/
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