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TheODDSbible's NFL Expert Picks Four Money Lines With Huge Betting Value

TheODDSbible's NFL Expert Picks Four Money Lines With Huge Betting Value

Anonymous

Anonymous

So with us now into weekend four of the NFL season we're starting to realise a little bit what's what. Most teams have played three games and we've had a chance to have a good look at QB play critically as well as various offensive and defensive personnel.

Those of you who follow me on Twitter will see I did pretty well last week picking out four decent value picks.

This weekend again is significant as it's the first in the London series of games and I fancy it's an opportunity to take some of that well learned knowledge and apply it to one of our picks. Again, you know the score, we're looking for teams the markets have got wrong.

All my prices are taken from Betfair and I'd recommend that if you haven't got a Betfair account, firstly what have you been doing? Secondly, get one. You're essentially betting with other punters as oppose to risk-averse bookmakers so 95% of the time you'll get a bigger price than any bookmaker.

Recently you'll notice bookmakers are trying to merge, that's because Betfair is having the same affect that meteor thing had on the Dinosaurs a few millions years ago.

Ok, let's get to the meat and drink, what looks good this week?

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Firstly, let's admit that heading is a little misleading and it's partly the reason I like this bet. This is the first Wembley game and officially the Jacksonville Jaguars are listed as at 'home'.

They're not. They're playing in another country. It means they fly in earlier and have a never-ending itinerary of public and commercial engagements.

The Jags are 0-3 after being a bit of a Hipster team pre-season and now all those bearded, beanie hat wearers are looking rather silly. Everyone expected big things from the Jaguars but they look to be firmly going nowhere under head coach Gus Bradley. Trust me, this trip to Wembley would have been the last thing they would have wanted.

Meanwhile the Colts finally turned the corner a tad last week with a last gasp win over San Diego. They now stand at 1-2 and that is admittedly down to stunning QB from surefire future Super Bowl winner, Andrew Luck. This is fundamentally why I like this pick, the QB match-up.

It could well rain at Wembley and conditions for snapping, throwing, catching and handling the ball could be as treacherous as an under-cover Telegraph reporter.

In adversity, Luck shines whereas Blake Bortles for the Jags look error-prone and even at times, badly coached. These are two pretty bad teams but the Colts offense can score and I'm confident Andrew Luck can rise to the occasion and bring home the bacon.

Take the Colts @ 1.75 to beat the Jags in their 'own backyard'.

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ok, ok so I'm a bit of a Denver fanboy but the reason I've picked them so often is how unfashionable they were at the start of the season.

Their 'adequate QB' has largely sufficed as it did last week in a tough road game vs. the Bengals. Oddsmakers are starting to catch on and I fancy it'll be a while before you get odds against for them in any NFL game.

They're short here on the road vs. Tampa Bay although I suspect they should be shorter. This is potentially an all time, 85' Bears-type defense and Tampa Bay are still fundamentally a bad football team.

You're never sure vs. the Buccaneers as the Winston/Evans partnership can always rack up points but the Buccs' D and especially it's secondary are poor. They gave up 37 points last week to arguably one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL in the LA Rams and I fancy that Kubiak, who is essentially an offensive coach, will figure out how to hurt this Tampa defense.

Again, with coaching setup, we're on the right side as I really don't rate Mike Malarkey down in Tampa Bay. Kubiak is a shrewd coach and with two time Super Bowl winner John Elway running things, Denver look sure for another winning season.

Tampa as I said can throw a punch but take the Super Bowl champs Denver @ 1.61 to put on another clinic in NFL football.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Ok, so after two shorties I'm now digging into some really nice priced picks. Once again we're going against the grain and opposing 'America's Team'.

Typically Dallas are the most bet team in the NFL and are constantly underpriced and overhyped. This applies this season as they have started pretty well with the cocksure and slick Dak Prescott under Center. America and especially Dallas has gone Dak crazy.

So far, the Cowboys are coping well without Tony Romo at QB, pretty much like Genesis did without Peter Gabriel. Or are they? I fancy they could be overrated a tad and with WR Dez Bryant being crocked this weekend they could look more like Destiny's Child without Beyonce. The Cowboys are good but on the road Vegas are only offering +3.5 with San Francisco. I smell a rat and fancy Vegas does too.

Prescott has been impressive at times but fallible at others and now three games into the season there is a little bit of tape now available on him. San Francisco are coached by a radical in Chip Kelly but his team has performed above expectations so far.

They look credible at times, especially on defense and can also move the ball even with the distinctly plain brown envelope-like Blaine Gabbert at QB.

I suspect the Cowboys could splutter a little here and suspect the Vegas shrewdies think the same. San Francisco have home advantage and are a pretty zany team.

Take the 49ers @ 2.20 to shock the Cowboys and probably most of America.

Image result for Blaine Gabbert
Image result for Blaine Gabbert

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Again, guilty. I like the Chiefs. I took them last week again and thankfully they did the biz. Reason I like them is I suspect they're a good, winning football team that don't really get people excited.

It makes them unfashionable which, yep you guessed it, makes that overpriced. Alex Smith is above average at QB, they have weapons at WR and TE and the defense is often game winning, especially lately with Marcus Peters at CB churning out interceptions like Apple does iPhone models.

They're a proficient, well-coached, well-rounded football team. The Steelers are all of those things also but I'm not buying into them being one of the top three/four teams in the NFL.

People buy that because they have a 'Holy Trinity' potentially in Big Ben, Bell at RB and Brown at WR. Bell incidentally returns this week from suspension but I reckon he'll be rusty. Don't expect big numbers from him, he'll need the run.

Overall the Steelers are good but last week the rookie QB Wentz from the Eagles made them look pedestrian. I fancy the market and the NFL 'illuminate' are overhyping this Steelers team at tad.

They're massive favourites at home but I think a little too heavily against another good outfit. Fancy this game will be quite low scoring and more importantly close. Thing is, the Chiefs are 3.00 on Betfair and that, ladies and gents is value.

Take the Chiefs to grind it out on the road @ 3.00 and finally burst that overly big Steelers bubble.

Honourable Mentions

That's all folks in picks. Honourable mentions as ever, fancy Houston (1.49) and Minnesota (1.45) will both get the job done and I also like Carolina (1.67) to rebound on the road vs. The Falcons.

Also, College Football mentions (Like the NFL's version of championship/football league), if you can get a bet on Michigan between -10 and -12.5 (they're currently -10.5) vs. Wisconsin then again that could be a decent wager.

I fancy Michigan will absolutely smoke Wisconsin who haven't really beaten a decent team yet. This is available at 1.91 with bet365.

Words By: Jamie Morral

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